Week 10 Recap: Spidey's Back!

The newest blockbuster of the summer, "The Amazing Spider-man", used the extra long July 4th week to propel itself to a very healthy opening (extended) weekend of $140 million.  It should end the first week north of $160 mil, with an overall six-week gross of around $300 mil, depending on how well it fares once "The Dark Knight Rises" bullies its way onto the screens in two weeks.  If it does reach $300 mil, any Studio Wars owner who bought it for $250 mil (an IV* score of 60) or less should consider it a successful fantasy investment.

The other two new releases, Oliver Stone's "Savages" and Katy Perry's biopic, opened to much more modest revenues, with the Katy Perry flick particularly bombing ($7 mil) despite rather positive reviews.  Apparently, the market for biopics about current pop stars is shrinking fast.  Gone seem the days when music stars had to earn their spurs through lasting musical talent and popularity before someone made a movie about them (think of Johnny Cash, Ray Charles, Buddy Holly, Richie Valens).  Nope, now you just have to get beyond your initial 15 minutes of fame and some movie producer will make your story into cinema gold (or kill his career trying).  "Katy Perry" should end up at about $20 mil, making it a good buy if its owners spent no more than $6 mil on it.  Savages made $16 mil this weekend, which puts it on pace for $45 mil.  Fantasy studios should be satisfied with that as long as they didn't spend over $20 mil (IV score of 56).

In older box office news, "Ted" continues to blow away expectations, earning another $32 mil this weekend, which places the astounding $200 mil mark squarely in its sights.  Meanwhile, as predicted here on Studio Wars, "Magic Mike" fell hard 60%, which would have been worse in a non-holiday week, and Tyler Perry's "Witness Protection" also plummeted down the charts.

Looking forward to this weekend, "Ice Age: Continental Drift" is the only wide release, but with it coming on the heels of both Madagascar 3 and Brave, the early opening forecasts of $60 mil seem a bit high.

*The IV (Investment Value) score, the best measure of true investment value, equals the fantasy profit multiplied by the fantasy return-on-investment (ROI).  For example, if a movie is purchased for $25 million and makes $50 mil in box office revenue (thus a profit of $25 mil for its owner), the ROI is 200% and the IV score is a healthy 50.
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Studio Wars: Origins
Current Standings (Projected Total)
1. Matt S. - $702 ($793)
2. Darius T. - $482 ($747)
3. Ryan C. - $443 ($728)
4. Jeremy J. - $410 ($568)
5. John S. - $369 ($496)
6. AJ K. - $132 ($471)
7. Pat S. - $130 ($530)

Week 9 Recap: Magical

You knew it was going to be an interesting weekend when Friday set new box office records.  For the first time in history, four different movies brought in over $10 million in revenue on a Friday.  "Ted" edged out "Magic Mike" at $20 mil, while "Brave" barely beat Tyler Perry's newest release at just over $10 mil.  At first blush, it appeared that a magic teddy bear flick would duel it out with a film about male strippers.  But as it turned out, Magic Mike's attendance weakened significantly as the weekend drew to a close, while Ted pulled in big crowds throughout.  At the end, Ted stood at $54 mil and Magic Mike at $39.  Depending on how the July 4th week affects the box office, Magic Mike should end up making Ryan at least $75 mil, while Ted will bring Darius over $100 mil in profit.  Tyler Perry's cinema "masterpiece" should make Jeremy an easy $30 mil.  The other wide release of the week, "People Like Us", bombed hard at only $5, which means AJ will lose a significant portion of the $57 mil he spent on it.

Looking further back, most of the older releases stayed on track, but Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, Rock of Ages, and That's My Boy all fell hard, endangering whatever small hopes their respective owners had of making back their money.

Looking forward to this coming weekend, the box office appears to have the usual July 4th one-trick pony in The Amazing Spiderman.  Currently, it's forecasting at about $250 mil, which would just make back Ryan's investment and little more.  For him to stand a chance at finishing first, he needs it to make more in the $350 range.  Unfortunately, with Dark Knight Rises coming out in three weeks, Spiderman isn't likely to do much after the first two weeks.  The other two wide releases of the weekend, "Katy Perry" and "Savages", are both owned by Darius (purchased for a total of $22 mil) and are projecting to make a combined total of nearly $100 mil.  If that holds true, Darius will further catapult into first place contention.

Current Standings (Projected Total):
1. Matt - $698 ($793)
2. John - $394 ($490)
3. Darius - $381 ($664)
4. Jeremy - $325 ($542)
5. Ryan - $254 ($609)
6. Pat - $130 ($530)
7. AJ - $127 ($456)

Week 8 Recap: PIXARed

Another week, another underwhelming box office.  Apparently, everyone had too much money to spend this season or overspent it on the early movies, cause for the seventh straight week, the new releases for the week are on track for a combined negative profit for their owners.  "Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter" was originally forecasting revenues in the $100 million vicinity, but as its release date got closer, people realized that it was too much of a niche film to reach that broad of an audience (plus, critics gave it very mixed reviews).  It managed to bring in $16 mil this past weekend, putting it on pace to make back Darius' investment and little more.  Steve Carell's "Seeking a Friend for the End of the World" did even worse, making only $4 mil and put John on pace to lose $10-20 mil on the comedy.  The one limited release film of the week, Woody Allen's "To Rome with Love", started small at $360k, but should do much better once it releases more widely.  Allen's last movie, "Midnight in Paris", also started relatively small but made nearly $60 mil by the end of its theater run.  The only real winner of the week proved to be the highly anticipated "Brave", PIXAR's newest in a long line of imaginative, well-made, box-office destroying movies.  While it ended up not doing as well as hoped, the $66 mil it did make should put Jeremy on pace for a profit of about $30 mil.

In older Studio Wars news, Madagascar 3 held better against Brave than expected, dropping only 42%.  Meanwhile, Prometheus dropped a bunch more and is destined to be the biggest loser of the season so far, which is now half over.

This weekend, it looks like "Ted" and "Brave" will duke it out for first place, while Tyler Perry's newest film will edge out "Magic Mike" for third, with "People Like Us" projecting to be a distant also-ran.

Current Standings (Projected Total):
1. Matt - $688 ($793)
2. John - $373 ($492)
3. Darius - $305 ($544)
4. Jeremy - $215 ($494)
5. Ryan - $186 ($523)
6. Pat - $130 ($530)
7. AJ - $122 ($500)

Trailer of the Week

Week 7 Recap: Nostalgia Sucks

Did you hear that sound?  It's the palpable silence caused by the empty theaters for the opening weekend of this week's new releases, "Rock of Ages" and "That's My Boy".  While box office forecasters had released somewhat reserved predictions for both films, no one quite expected them to bomb HARD.  The Tom Cruise-led "Rock of Ages" made only $15 million, while Adam Sandler's first foray into R-rated comedy produced a mere $13 mil (and a 23% RT rating).  What originally looked like solid opportunities for their respective owners Ryan and John has now turned into a dwindling hope of just making back the original investment.  At this point, John seems more likely to achieve that hope while Ryan is destined to lose about $10 mil on the 80's glam rock flick.

But on the bright side, Ryan's purchase of Madagascar 3 is looking more and more positive.  Mad 3 capitalized on the last remaining weekend prior to the release of Brave by falling only 40% and winning the weekend with ease at $36 mil.  At this rate, it should more than offset Ryan's losses from Rock of Ages.  On the other hand, Prometheus also proved the writers here at Studio Wars correct by plummeting 60% with a paltry $20 mil in its second weekend of release.  Thankfully for Matt, he always has Avengers.  Speaking of Avengers, this week closed the six-week box office book on the super blockbuster movie, along with the sleeper purchase of the year, Exotic Marigold Hotel.  Both films ended up with SWFs over 600, making them two of the best investments in Studio Wars' young history, as well as about the only movies making anyone money thus far this season.

This weekend may change that.  Besides the aforementioned Brave, also releasing wide this weekend are "Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter" and Steve Carell's "Seeking a Friend for the End of the World" (though the latter is a more limited release).  Jeremy purchased Brave for $155 mil, and it may well become his first wide release to make him money, as it is looking likely to hit $200 when it's all said and done.  But to do that, it will need to make $70 mil this weekend.  Meanwhile, the revisionist take on Abraham Lincoln's secret double life is forecasting good profits for Darius, assuming it makes at least $20 mil by Sunday night.  John is hoping for similar numbers for Seeking a Friend.

Trailer of the Week

Week 6 Recap: Alien vs. Cartoon

It finally arrived, the movie that took the world by viral storm.  Prometheus, the is-it-an-Alien-prequel-or-not Ridley Scott flick that had movie buffs everywhere anxious with anticipation.  All that hype, all that waiting, all that cool factor... and it was beaten by this.  $60 million to $51 million.  At first blush, that seems a bit underwhelming for a movie that spent so much time and energy on promoting itself via internet shorts.  But when you consider that it was an R-rated alien film, and that past releases in that genre have usually topped out at $90-100 mil for total box office, $51 mil doesn't look so bad.  And losing to Madagascar 3 is hardly something to be ashamed of, since Mad 3 was the first animated kids movie in over three months.  It could have been utter trash and it would have still raked in a load opening weekend.

The real question is how each movie will do in coming weeks.  Mad 3 has two weeks to make its money before Pixar's new blockbuster "Brave" hits the theaters.  So it's probably safe to assume that it will be at about $130 mil after two weeks and then drop off significantly from there.  Still, it should end up making Ryan $10-20 mil.  Prometheus, on the other hand, doesn't have a lot of direct competition for the rest of June, and has drummed up relatively solid reviews (Rotten Tomatoes has it at 74% fresh).  But it is also a movie that seems likely to have peaked in its opening weekend, considering all the hype going in.  It won't be too surprising if it ends up making only $130 mil, which would Matt loses $30 mil on his investment.

This coming weekend poses another interesting matchup.  Rock of Ages, the musical send-up to 80's glam metal hair bands starring Tom Cruise, was hyped early and often.  It's currently tracking at $33 mil on HSX for opening weekend, which would be a very solid start for Ryan's second film of the year.  On the other side of the ring, we have That's My Boy, Adam Sandler's newest attempt at reliving his Billy Madison days.  One would think that the same old schtick would grow old with moviegoers, but Sandler continues to have success with his tried and true brand.  But cracks are starting to show in the Sandler genre.  Jack and Jill, released late last year, was the first not to break $100 mil in box office revenue.  HSX has That's My Boy predicted for a $26 mil opening weekend, which would set a new low for Sandler raunch-coms.  But even if that ends up being the case, John will still make a chunk of change since he bought it for a mere $35 mil.  It's difficult not to see him making at least $30 mil on That's My Boy.