Week 6 Recap: Alien vs. Cartoon

It finally arrived, the movie that took the world by viral storm.  Prometheus, the is-it-an-Alien-prequel-or-not Ridley Scott flick that had movie buffs everywhere anxious with anticipation.  All that hype, all that waiting, all that cool factor... and it was beaten by this.  $60 million to $51 million.  At first blush, that seems a bit underwhelming for a movie that spent so much time and energy on promoting itself via internet shorts.  But when you consider that it was an R-rated alien film, and that past releases in that genre have usually topped out at $90-100 mil for total box office, $51 mil doesn't look so bad.  And losing to Madagascar 3 is hardly something to be ashamed of, since Mad 3 was the first animated kids movie in over three months.  It could have been utter trash and it would have still raked in a load opening weekend.

The real question is how each movie will do in coming weeks.  Mad 3 has two weeks to make its money before Pixar's new blockbuster "Brave" hits the theaters.  So it's probably safe to assume that it will be at about $130 mil after two weeks and then drop off significantly from there.  Still, it should end up making Ryan $10-20 mil.  Prometheus, on the other hand, doesn't have a lot of direct competition for the rest of June, and has drummed up relatively solid reviews (Rotten Tomatoes has it at 74% fresh).  But it is also a movie that seems likely to have peaked in its opening weekend, considering all the hype going in.  It won't be too surprising if it ends up making only $130 mil, which would Matt loses $30 mil on his investment.

This coming weekend poses another interesting matchup.  Rock of Ages, the musical send-up to 80's glam metal hair bands starring Tom Cruise, was hyped early and often.  It's currently tracking at $33 mil on HSX for opening weekend, which would be a very solid start for Ryan's second film of the year.  On the other side of the ring, we have That's My Boy, Adam Sandler's newest attempt at reliving his Billy Madison days.  One would think that the same old schtick would grow old with moviegoers, but Sandler continues to have success with his tried and true brand.  But cracks are starting to show in the Sandler genre.  Jack and Jill, released late last year, was the first not to break $100 mil in box office revenue.  HSX has That's My Boy predicted for a $26 mil opening weekend, which would set a new low for Sandler raunch-coms.  But even if that ends up being the case, John will still make a chunk of change since he bought it for a mere $35 mil.  It's difficult not to see him making at least $30 mil on That's My Boy.