Week 10 Recap: Spidey's Back!

The newest blockbuster of the summer, "The Amazing Spider-man", used the extra long July 4th week to propel itself to a very healthy opening (extended) weekend of $140 million.  It should end the first week north of $160 mil, with an overall six-week gross of around $300 mil, depending on how well it fares once "The Dark Knight Rises" bullies its way onto the screens in two weeks.  If it does reach $300 mil, any Studio Wars owner who bought it for $250 mil (an IV* score of 60) or less should consider it a successful fantasy investment.

The other two new releases, Oliver Stone's "Savages" and Katy Perry's biopic, opened to much more modest revenues, with the Katy Perry flick particularly bombing ($7 mil) despite rather positive reviews.  Apparently, the market for biopics about current pop stars is shrinking fast.  Gone seem the days when music stars had to earn their spurs through lasting musical talent and popularity before someone made a movie about them (think of Johnny Cash, Ray Charles, Buddy Holly, Richie Valens).  Nope, now you just have to get beyond your initial 15 minutes of fame and some movie producer will make your story into cinema gold (or kill his career trying).  "Katy Perry" should end up at about $20 mil, making it a good buy if its owners spent no more than $6 mil on it.  Savages made $16 mil this weekend, which puts it on pace for $45 mil.  Fantasy studios should be satisfied with that as long as they didn't spend over $20 mil (IV score of 56).

In older box office news, "Ted" continues to blow away expectations, earning another $32 mil this weekend, which places the astounding $200 mil mark squarely in its sights.  Meanwhile, as predicted here on Studio Wars, "Magic Mike" fell hard 60%, which would have been worse in a non-holiday week, and Tyler Perry's "Witness Protection" also plummeted down the charts.

Looking forward to this weekend, "Ice Age: Continental Drift" is the only wide release, but with it coming on the heels of both Madagascar 3 and Brave, the early opening forecasts of $60 mil seem a bit high.

*The IV (Investment Value) score, the best measure of true investment value, equals the fantasy profit multiplied by the fantasy return-on-investment (ROI).  For example, if a movie is purchased for $25 million and makes $50 mil in box office revenue (thus a profit of $25 mil for its owner), the ROI is 200% and the IV score is a healthy 50.
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Studio Wars: Origins
Current Standings (Projected Total)
1. Matt S. - $702 ($793)
2. Darius T. - $482 ($747)
3. Ryan C. - $443 ($728)
4. Jeremy J. - $410 ($568)
5. John S. - $369 ($496)
6. AJ K. - $132 ($471)
7. Pat S. - $130 ($530)